Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?

What this question means

A collapse, and a fast one. Six days ago the crowd put the chance that the foldable iPhone's first announced price would be at least $2,000 at 72%. It now sits at 24%, having covered a 24% to 89% range in less than a week.

Pricing questions like this have a particular character. They do not resolve gradually — there is a moment when a number is announced, and everything before that moment is inference from supply chains, precedent and rumour. So the forecast tends to swing hard on thin information and then settle instantly.

The threshold is what makes it interesting rather than the product. "At least $2,000" is a specific line, and the question is not whether the device is expensive but whether it clears that particular bar. A device announced at $1,999 resolves this exactly the same way as one announced at $999.

The question runs to the end of September, so there is not long left for another swing of this size.