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3rd Largest Company end of September?

  1. Alphabet90%
  2. Apple30%
  3. Microsoft6%
  4. NVIDIA5%
  5. Tesla0%
  6. Saudi Aramco0%
  7. Amazon0%
  8. Broadcom0%
  9. SpaceX0%
Status
Open
Resolves by
September 30, 2026
Contenders
9

What this question means

An ordinal question — not who is largest, but who is *third* largest by market capitalisation at the end of September. Alphabet leads at 90%, with Apple at 30%, Microsoft at 6% and NVIDIA at 5%.

Ordinal questions are harder than they look, because the answer depends on everything above the target position as well as the target itself. A company can grow substantially and drop a place because two others grew faster.

The constraint between related questions is visible here. NVIDIA sits at 79% to be the *largest* company by the end of December on this board — which is precisely why it carries only 5% here. A company expected to hold first place is, by construction, unlikely to be third.

That interlock is the useful thing. Read the two together and you get the crowd's expected ordering of the whole top of the market, which neither question expresses on its own.

What is your call?

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