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PolyGround

Business

Deel IPO before 2027?

5%chance of yes
YES 5%NO 96%
Status
Open
Resolves by
January 1, 2027
Since first tracked
0 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Five percent, and the flattest line on the board: 5% at the start of tracking, 5% a month ago, 5% a week ago, with a recorded range of exactly 5% to 5%. In a full month the forecast on a Deel IPO before 2027 has not moved a single point.

A number this static tells you there is simply no news flow. IPO questions move when companies file, when bankers are appointed, when reports appear — and when none of that happens, the forecast sits on its base rate indefinitely.

That makes questions like this a useful calibration exercise. There is no cleverness available: no momentum to read, no volatility to interpret, just a judgement about how often a private company of this profile goes public within a given window. If you disagree with 5%, you disagree about the base rate itself, and that is a much more honest kind of disagreement than most forecasting offers.

Just under four months remain.

What is your call?

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