Next James Bond actor?

What this question means

Jack Lowdon at 38% leads, but the second-placed option is not a person — "No Bond chosen" sits at 18%.

Behind that: Callum Turner at 10%, Henry Cavill at 8%, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Tom Holland at 6%, Paul Mescal at 4%, Robert James-Collier at 2%, across a seventeen-name field.

Including the null outcome is what makes this question honest. Casting decisions are announced when a studio chooses to announce them, not on a schedule, and a question with a fixed deadline has to account for the possibility that nothing is said at all. Without that option the other numbers would be quietly inflated.

So there are two forecasts here. Roughly four in five that a Bond is named by the deadline, and conditional on that, a clear but not overwhelming favourite. Anyone who thinks the announcement slips should be reading the 18%, not arguing about the names above it.