"Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office

What this question means

Seventy-seven percent on "under $38m" — the crowd expects Practical Magic 2 to open below the lowest bracket offered.

The rest of the distribution is thin: $38-41m at 19%, $41-44m and $47-51m at 4%, $44-47m at 3%, and above $51m at zero.

When the bottom bucket of a range question carries this much weight, the brackets were set higher than the market thinks is realistic. That is common on box office questions, where the ranges are often drawn before tracking data arrives and the crowd converges downward as the opening approaches.

It also means the question has limited resolution left. Most of the possible outcomes are compressed into a single option, so unless the film substantially outperforms, there is not much for the forecast to discriminate between.

Opening weekend lands on 13 September, making this one of the shortest-dated questions here — and among the cleanest, since box office figures are reported publicly and quickly.