OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

What this question means

Twenty-two percent, more than doubled from 9% a month ago, with a recorded range of 8% to 28%.

The phrasing carries the whole question. This does not ask whether AGI is achieved — it asks whether a specific company *announces* that it has. Those are very different propositions, and the second is a question about corporate communication as much as capability.

That framing is what makes it forecastable at all. "Has AGI been achieved" has no agreed definition and no clean resolution; "did this organisation make this announcement" is a matter of public record. Whenever a question about something contested resolves cleanly, it is usually because it has been rewritten as a question about an observable act.

The steady climb is the notable part. A forecast that doubles over a month without a single dramatic jump suggests accumulating evidence rather than one piece of news.