Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

What this question means

Twelve percent, with only two days of history spanning 7% to 18%.

The phrasing is the thing to read carefully. "Another" implies a precedent — this question exists because something comparable has happened before, and the crowd is being asked whether it recurs within a short window.

Questions framed as repeats are harder than they look. A first occurrence establishes that something is possible, which raises estimates for a second. But the interval matters enormously: a breakthrough that took years to arrive does not become routine because it happened once, and a short deadline compresses the odds regardless of how achievable the feat is in principle.

At 12% with a deadline weeks away, the crowd is pricing exactly that tension — a thing now demonstrably possible, against very little time for it to happen again. The wide range on a two-day history says the view is not yet settled.