Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?

What this question means

Three deadlines, one product, and a spread that runs almost the whole scale. A foldable iPhone by 15 September sits at 5%. By 30 September, 15%. Before 2027, 97%.

Same product, same question, three dates — and the numbers run from near-zero to near-certain.

Ladders like this decompose a forecast into its two components. The 97% is the crowd's view on whether the device ships at all. The 5% is its view on whether it ships in the next nine days. Neither alone tells you much; together they say the event is essentially assumed and the timing is not.

The collapse here is recent: 28% a week ago, 5% now, after a high of 71%. Near-dated questions shed probability fastest at the end, because each passing day removes a disproportionate share of the remaining window.