Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

What this question means

Doubled in two days, from 6% at the open to 12%.

The question next to it on this board asks whether *any* AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution in the same window, and is also priced at 12%.

That equality is the interesting part, because one condition contains the other. If this resolves Yes, the broader question must too — so the broader question can never be lower. Pricing them identically says the crowd sees essentially no path where some other lab gets there first. The entire probability of the general case is being assigned to one specific actor.

Nested questions like this are worth seeking out. Each one alone tells you a probability; the *gap* between them tells you something the numbers do not state — here, a view about who, not just whether. A gap of zero is a strong opinion in its own right.