Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?

What this question means

This completes a four-rung ladder on the board, and the shape is the point. The same leaderboard debut is priced at 76% for a score of at least 1480, 66% at 1490, 23% here at 1510, and 8% at 1520.

Read in sequence — 76, 66, 23, 8 — the decline is not even. There is a gentle slope from 1480 to 1490, then the floor gives way between 1490 and 1510.

That inflection locates the crowd's central expectation more precisely than any single question could. The steepest drop in a threshold series marks where the bulk of the probability mass sits, and here it sits just below 1510.

It is worth building the habit of reading these as a set. Four questions look like four opinions; arranged by threshold they are one distribution, and the distribution says considerably more than its parts.