2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

What this question means

Carlos Alcaraz at 56% is the favourite, but this is a good deal less settled than a favourite above fifty usually looks.

Alexander Zverev at 27% is a real challenger rather than a courtesy entry — roughly half of Alcaraz's number, which in a knockout draw means one bad afternoon flips the whole thing. Ben Shelton at 8% is the only other player with a meaningful share. Below him, Frances Tiafoe and Learner Tien at 4%, then Karen Khachanov, Alexander Blockx and Alex Michelsen trailing at 2% and below across an eleven-player field.

Tennis draws produce this shape often. Unlike a season-long championship, where a points lead compounds, a tournament is a sequence of single eliminations — so probability stays spread out much later than the ranking gap alone would suggest, and it moves in large jumps as matches complete.

The tournament closes on 13 September, making this one of the faster-resolving questions on the board.