2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

What this question means

Aryna Sabalenka at 38% is the favourite, but across a forty-player field this is one of the more open questions on the board.

Iga Swiatek at 12% and Elena Rybakina at 10% lead the chase, with Coco Gauff at 7%, Mirra Andreeva and Naomi Osaka at 6%, Jessica Pegula at 5% and Amanda Anisimova at 4%. Eight names carry meaningful probability, and the field runs far beyond them.

The contrast with the men's draw on this board is striking. There Carlos Alcaraz sits at 56% across eleven listed players. Here the favourite is nearly twenty points lower with almost four times the field. That is a real difference in competitive depth, not a quirk of pricing.

It also makes this the more interesting forecasting problem. A 38% favourite means the field is collectively favoured, and correctly identifying which challenger has been underpriced matters far more than agreeing about who leads.

Concludes 13 September.