F1 Drivers' Champion

What this question means

With twenty-two drivers on the board, this one is not close. Kimi Antonelli sits at 85%, and everyone else is competing for what is left.

Lewis Hamilton is the nearest thing to a challenger at 13%, with George Russell at 6% behind him. Below that the field thins out fast: Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc both at 2%, and a long tail — Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen, Isack Hadjar and the rest — rounding to zero.

A spread this lopsided suggests a championship closer to mathematically decided than merely likely. When a leader is at 85% with a season still running, the remaining probability is mostly pricing the things that do not show up in a points table: mechanical failure, injury, a run of races that go wrong in an unusual way.

The interesting question is not who wins. It is whether Hamilton's 13% is generous or stingy — and that turns on how much of the season is actually left to run.

Settles in December.