ATP 2026 End of Year Rankings: Player to be Number 1

What this question means

Only three names on the board, which is itself unusual: Jannik Sinner at 80%, Alexander Zverev at 21%, Carlos Alcaraz at 1%.

Year-end rankings are a different forecasting problem from tournament wins. Rankings accumulate across a season, so by this point in the year most of the deciding results have already happened — the question is less about who plays best and more about whether the existing points gap can still be overturned in the time remaining.

That is why the field is so short. Mathematically, only a handful of players are still in contention, and everyone else has been eliminated by arithmetic rather than by form.

The 1% on Alcaraz is the interesting figure. Given he is the favourite in the US Open question elsewhere on this board, his near-zero here shows how completely these two things can diverge: winning the biggest remaining title does not necessarily close a season-long points gap.