F1 Constructors' Champion

What this question means

Mercedes at 91%, Ferrari at 9%, McLaren at 2%, and the rest of the grid at zero.

Compare with the drivers' championship question on this board, where the leading driver sits at 85%. Same team, same season, and the constructors' title is priced six points more confidently. That gap is structural rather than coincidental.

A constructors' championship counts both cars. A team with two strong drivers accumulates points twice over, which smooths out the individual variance — a retirement for one car is partially covered by the other. A drivers' title has no such redundancy: one mechanical failure lands entirely on one person's total.

So the team title is almost always the safer of the two, and the size of the gap tells you how much of the team's advantage comes from depth rather than from a single driver.

Three months to run, though on these numbers the outcome is close to settled.