Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?

What this question means

Resolved YES. The challenge was completed before the deadline.

The forecast got there the hard way. Tracking opened at 76%, fell as low as 36%, recovered to 66% a week out, and finished at 69%. That dip in the middle is the interesting part of the record: at one point the crowd thought failure was close to as likely as success.

Completion questions often move like this. Progress is visible but uneven, and a bad stretch drags the number down further than the eventual outcome justifies — recency weighs heavily when there is no long history to anchor against.

A later version of the same challenge, with a 14 September deadline, sat at 95% on this board. Worth noting how much more confident the crowd was second time around: one completed attempt is powerful evidence about whether a thing can be done at all.