Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

What this question means

Remarkably still: 18% a month ago, 18% a week ago, 18% now, inside a 17% to 19% band across the entire tracked period.

The near-dated version of this question — the same merger announced by 30 September — sits at 3% on this board. Three months of extra runway multiplies the odds sixfold.

That ratio is the interesting figure. A large multiple from a deadline extension means the constraint is time rather than plausibility: the crowd thinks the event is quite possible but that formal announcements take longer than a few weeks to arrive.

The flatness alongside it matters too. A question responding to genuine speculation would move as reports came and went. One that holds an identical value for a month is pricing a structural view, not reacting to news — which makes it a cleaner read on what the crowd actually believes.