Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

What this question means

A flat 3% with the deadline weeks away, and remarkably steady — 5% a month ago, 4% a week ago, inside a 3% to 7% band throughout.

Two things push this number down, and it is worth separating them. First, corporate combinations of this scale are rare and complex. Second, and more restrictive, the question requires an official announcement by 30 September specifically. A deal could be under discussion, even agreed, and still fail to be announced inside the window.

That second constraint is doing most of the work. Dated questions about corporate events are really two forecasts stacked: whether the thing happens at all, and whether the formalities complete in time.

The flatness confirms it. A question responding to real speculation would move as reports appeared. One sitting at 3% for a month is pricing a structural improbability, not reacting to news.