Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

What this question means

Fourteen percent — the top of the ladder, and the only one of the three still in clearly unlikely territory.

The series on this board runs $2.5T at 46%, $3.0T at 30%, and this one at $4.0T. All three have moved up together over the past month: this has gone from 6% to 14%, having ranged between 6% and 17%.

A move from 6% to 14% is easy to under-read. In absolute terms it is eight points; in relative terms the crowd has more than doubled the odds it assigns. On low-probability questions the relative change is usually the meaningful one, because the absolute numbers are small by construction.

Worth remembering what the top rung of a threshold series represents. It is not a separate prediction but the tail of a distribution — the portion of outcomes that clear every lower bar and keep going. Tails are always thin, and they move the most in percentage terms.