Will Drake release a new album by December 31?

What this question means

Volatile for a six-day history: opened at 42%, ranged from 23% to 74%, and now sits at 61%.

The near-dated version of this question — an album by 30 September — sits at 19% on this board. Three extra months triple the odds, which places the constraint squarely on timing rather than likelihood.

Release questions work this way because announcements precede releases. A record arriving in September would already be public; one arriving in December need not be. So the short-deadline question decays on silence while the long-deadline question holds.

The wide swing in less than a week is the notable feature. On questions driven by announcement rather than accumulation, small signals move numbers a long way — and a 23% to 74% range in six days suggests the crowd is reacting to reports rather than settling on a view.