Will Drake release a new album by September 30?

What this question means

Halved in under a week: 39% at the open six days ago, a low of 8%, and 19% now.

Release questions with a near deadline decay for a mechanical reason: albums are announced before they arrive. A release scheduled for the final days of September would normally be public knowledge by now, so every day of silence removes probability without anything having changed about the artist's plans.

That is why the number halved in under a week. Not new information about a decision — the absence of the announcement that would have to precede it.

The 8% low followed by a recovery to 19% is the interesting wrinkle. Something moved the crowd back up after the floor, which on a question this short-dated usually means a report or a signal rather than a reassessment. With the deadline weeks away, the calendar will keep pressing downward absent something concrete.