Will Playboi Carti have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?

What this question means

A steady retreat: 27% a month ago, 22% a week ago, 10% now, from an opening of 19% and a high of 30%.

Chart questions with a year-end deadline decay in a particular way. A number one single requires a release, a promotional window and enough time to climb — so as the calendar advances without a candidate track in play, the probability erodes regardless of an artist's standing.

That is most of what has happened here. The decline is gradual and one-directional, which is the signature of time running out rather than a reassessment of ability.

Note the precision of the bar, too. This requires a *number one*, not a hit, not a charting single, not commercial success. Questions specifying the top position are considerably harder than they read, because the competition is whatever else happens to be released that week.