Will GameStop acquire eBay?

What this question means

Eight percent, easing down from 13% at the start of tracking through a 7% to 13% band.

Acquisition questions naming two specific companies are almost always priced low, and usually correctly. The base rate is the dominant factor: at any given moment, the overwhelming majority of company pairs are not in the process of merging, and no amount of strategic logic changes that arithmetic.

What gives these questions their character is the shape of the payoff rather than the level. The number can sit in single digits for months and then move to near-certainty in an afternoon, because deals become public all at once. There is no gradual path.

Note also the bar. The question asks about an acquisition, not talks, an approach, or reported interest. Speculation is common and cheap; completed transactions are neither, and the gap between the two is where most mispricing on questions like this lives.