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Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

79%chance of yes
YES 79%NO 22%
Status
Open
Time left
3mo
Since first tracked
+9 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Up from 59% a month ago to 79% now, though off a peak of 85% and down from 83% a week ago.

The other valuation question on this board asks about a $975B threshold by 30 September and sits at 44%. This asks about $1.0T by 31 December. Higher bar, longer deadline — and nearly double the probability.

That combination isolates the timing effect cleanly. A slightly higher threshold should reduce the odds; three extra months more than compensate. So the crowd's view is that the level is likely reachable, and that September is simply too soon.

The recent softening from 85% is worth watching. On questions that have climbed steadily for a month, the first sustained pullback is either consolidation or a turn, and nothing in the history distinguishes them in advance.

What is your call?

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