Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?

What this question means

Rising from 21% a week ago to 31%, after opening at 50% and ranging down to 20%.

This asks about a *low* rather than a high — whether the index touches a level on the downside during September. Downside threshold questions are the mirror image of the upside ones elsewhere on this board, and they behave the same way in reverse: the probability rises when the underlying falls toward the line.

The recovery from 20% to 31% therefore implies renewed expectation of a move down, not up. That is easy to misread if you skim the title.

Month-long price questions occupy a middle ground between the weekly ones here, which mostly measure proximity, and the year-end ones, which measure belief. There is enough time for a real move and little enough that the clock still matters.