Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

What this question means

The Clarity Act — formally H.R.3633 — is proposed U.S. legislation dealing with digital assets. This question asks something narrower than whether the bill is good or popular: whether it gets all the way to a presidential signature before the end of 2026.

That distinction matters, because most bills do not. A bill can pass a chamber, attract broad support, and still die in committee, get folded into other legislation, or simply run out of calendar. The crowd currently puts the odds at 17%.

The trend has been gently downward. A month ago the forecast sat at 22%, and it has drifted through a 13% to 28% range since tracking began at 21%. Nothing dramatic — the kind of slow decay you often see on legislative questions as the available floor time shrinks and the deadline stops looking generous.

Anyone forecasting this is really forecasting a legislative calendar rather than a policy debate.