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PolyGround

Crypto

LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?

92%chance of yes
YES 92%NO 9%
Status
Open
Resolves by
December 31, 2026
Since first tracked
+9 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

At 92%, this is close to settled in the affirmative — and it got there quickly.

The question asks whether LAPTOP's fully diluted valuation, the theoretical value of its entire token supply at current prices, exceeds $350 million one day after launch. FDV is a blunt measure, since it counts tokens that have not been released yet, but it is the standard yardstick for sizing a launch, which is why questions like this use it.

There is only a single day of recorded history here, and in that day the forecast has already ranged from 83% to 95%, starting at 83% and climbing. That is a great deal of movement in very little time, which is normal for launch questions: they resolve fast, information arrives all at once, and the number tracks it almost immediately.

Worth noting that $350 million is the easier of two related questions here. A companion question asks the same thing at $500 million, and the gap between the two is where the real disagreement lives.

What is your call?

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