LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?

What this question means

The moonshot of the group. Where the $250M version of this question sits at 96%, the $1 billion threshold sits at 24% — and that spread is the actual content.

Four thresholds are on the board for LAPTOP's fully diluted valuation one day after launch. Reading them in order — 96%, 92%, 80%, 24% — gives you something a single question cannot: the crowd expects a strong launch with high confidence, and a spectacular one with low confidence. The sharp drop between $500M and $1B is where the consensus breaks down.

This question has also been the most volatile of the set, swinging from 9% to 65% across three days of tracking and starting at 25%. A range that wide on the hardest threshold makes sense — it is the one where small differences in assumption produce large differences in answer.

Anyone forecasting this is not really predicting a price. They are predicting how far past expectations a launch lands, which is a much harder thing to know.