Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?

What this question means

This question is really two questions stacked, which is why the number is lower than it first appears.

At 6%, it asks whether Consensys achieves an IPO closing market cap above $1 billion. Yes requires both that a listing happens at all, and that it closes above a specific valuation. Compound conditions like this multiply: even a fairly likely listing paired with a fairly likely valuation produces a modest combined figure.

The forecast has been drifting down — 11% a month ago, 10% a week ago, 6% now, within a 6% to 14% range from a start of 7%.

Compound questions are among the most commonly misread on any board. The instinct is to judge the headline condition, notice it seems plausible, and conclude the number is too low. The correction is to price each component and multiply. Two 40% conditions produce a 16% outcome, not a 40% one — and that gap is where most of the disagreement on this question probably lives.