Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?

What this question means

Thirty-two buckets, and the leading one takes 12%. This is the flattest distribution anywhere on this board.

The cause is arithmetic rather than ignorance. A month-long count has a far wider plausible range than a week-long one, so the same underlying certainty about the daily rate spreads across many more possible totals. Narrow buckets over a wide range guarantee a low peak.

That makes direct comparison with the shorter windows here misleading. A 12% peak across forty-tweet brackets over thirty days may represent *more* confidence about the underlying rate than a 64% peak over eight days — the resolution of the question differs, not just the answer.

It is a general trap with bucketed questions. Peak height depends on bucket width and range as much as on how much the crowd knows, and comparing peaks across differently-structured questions compares the structures rather than the forecasts.