Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

What this question means

Sitting just above the noise floor: 5% a month ago, 4% a week ago, 3% now, inside a 3% to 5% band.

The companion question here uses a 30 September deadline and prices at 1%. The gap between them is the honest arithmetic of dated questions — fifteen months against three weeks, for an outcome the crowd treats as remote either way.

What is worth understanding is why neither is zero. Very low probabilities on this board rarely fall below 1-2%, partly because that is where the smallest increments live and partly because a genuinely impossible outcome would simply not be listed. Read 3% as "the crowd sees no path", not as a measurement.

The flatness over a month reinforces that. There is nothing arriving to move this, which is itself the most informative thing the number says.