Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

What this question means

Effectively at the floor. This has read 1% or 2% for its entire tracked history, and sits at 1% with the deadline weeks away.

The longer-dated version of the same question — the same confirmation, but before 2027 — prices at 3%. Both are near the bottom of the scale, and the small difference between them is almost entirely the extra fifteen months.

Questions at this level are less forecasts than markers. There is no evidence to weigh and no trend to read; the number represents the minimum the crowd assigns to an outcome it does not expect, and the only informative event would be movement.

That is worth keeping in mind when scanning any board. A 1% question is not making a claim about the world so much as declining to make one, and the difference between 1% and 3% here carries less meaning than the gap between 40% and 45% would on a live question.