Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- Status
- Open
- Resolves by
- January 1, 2027
- Since first tracked
- -1 pts
How the forecast has moved
What this question means
Pinned at the bottom of the scale: 2% at the open, 2% a month ago, 1% now, never outside a 1% to 2% band.
This sits in the same territory as the other near-floor questions on this board — alien confirmation at 1% and 3%, and a handful of others that have never meaningfully moved. What they share is not subject matter but structure: outcomes for which no evidence arrives, so no revision occurs.
For a forecast to move, something has to happen that changes what a reasonable person believes. Where no such information exists, the number simply holds at whatever minimum the crowd assigns, month after month.
That makes questions like this a useful reference point when reading the rest of a board. They show you where the floor is — and therefore how much a 5% or 8% reading elsewhere is actually saying.
What is your call?
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