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PolyGround

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

1%chance of yes
YES 1%NO 99%
Status
Open
Resolves by
January 1, 2027
Since first tracked
-1 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Pinned at the bottom of the scale: 2% at the open, 2% a month ago, 1% now, never outside a 1% to 2% band.

This sits in the same territory as the other near-floor questions on this board — alien confirmation at 1% and 3%, and a handful of others that have never meaningfully moved. What they share is not subject matter but structure: outcomes for which no evidence arrives, so no revision occurs.

For a forecast to move, something has to happen that changes what a reasonable person believes. Where no such information exists, the number simply holds at whatever minimum the crowd assigns, month after month.

That makes questions like this a useful reference point when reading the rest of a board. They show you where the floor is — and therefore how much a 5% or 8% reading elsewhere is actually saying.

What is your call?

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