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Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?

  1. 180-19919%
  2. 200-21918%
  3. 160-17914%
  4. 220-23914%
  5. 240-25910%
  6. 140-1598%
  7. 260-2796%
  8. 280-2994%
  9. 120-1393%
  10. 300-3193%
  11. 320-3392%
  12. 100-1191%
  13. Field (rest)2%
Status
Open
Resolves by
September 18, 2026
Contenders
26

What this question means

Entirely in the future, and it shows. The leading bucket — 180-199 — takes just 19%, with 200-219 at 18%, 160-179 and 220-239 at 14%, and meaningful weight stretching from 140 up past 280.

This is the flattest of the eight-day tweet-count questions on this board, and the reason is simply that none of the window has happened yet. Its counterparts covering 1-8 and 4-11 September peak at 35% and 64% respectively, because both are largely elapsed.

A distribution this broad is the honest baseline: what the crowd believes before any of the actual data arrives. Everything above it is the value of partial information.

Watching a question like this tighten as its window opens is one of the more instructive things available here — it makes visible the thing forecasting usually hides, which is how much confidence comes from evidence rather than judgement.

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