Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?

What this question means

Two percent — the most demanding threshold in this family of questions, and priced accordingly.

Where similar questions on this board ask about valuations in the hundreds of millions, this one asks whether Extended's fully diluted valuation clears $3 billion one day after launch. That is an order of magnitude higher, and the forecast reflects it: a flat 1% to 2% across the entire tracked period.

There is a useful principle here about reading threshold series. The bars are not equally spaced in difficulty. Moving from $100M to $250M is a modest step; moving to $3B is a different category of outcome, and probability falls away far faster than the numbers alone suggest. A launch can wildly exceed expectations and still miss a bar set this high.

At 2%, the crowd is not saying this is impossible — it is saying that only a genuinely exceptional launch reaches it, and exceptional is by definition uncommon.