Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

What this question means

Holding a narrow band all month: 17% at the open, 17% a month ago, 12% a week ago, 14% now, never outside 12% to 19%.

Several leadership questions sit on this board, and this one prices meaningfully higher than most — Putin at 7%, Xi at 4%, an Iranian leadership change at 3%. That difference is structural rather than a judgement about any individual.

Parliamentary systems make a leader's position contingent on continuing coalition support, which can be withdrawn between elections without any extraordinary event. Presidential and authoritarian systems have far fewer routine mechanisms for removal, so equivalent questions price lower.

The broad condition applies here as elsewhere: "out as Chancellor" covers resignation, a confidence vote, coalition collapse and any other route. The 14% is the sum across all of them, not a forecast of any particular scenario.