LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?

What this question means

Up nine points in four days, from 86% at the open to 95%.

This is the lowest threshold in the LAPTOP valuation series — the question the whole set is anchored on. At the other end, the $2 billion version sits at 3%.

A floor question earns its place by establishing what everyone agrees on. Knowing the crowd doubts a billion-dollar outcome is only half a forecast; knowing it is near-certain about ten million tells you the expected range has a solid bottom, and the distance between the two ends is the actual content.

What stands out here is that even this bar started genuinely uncertain, at 86%, and firmed up over four days. On a launch nobody had priced before, the crowd initially reserved real doubt about clearing a level it now treats as close to given. That progression is what information arriving looks like.