LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?
- Status
- Open
- Resolves by
- December 31, 2026
- Since first tracked
- +18 pts
How the forecast has moved
What this question means
Ninety-six percent — the floor of the LAPTOP valuation series, and priced accordingly.
Seven questions on this board ask whether LAPTOP's fully diluted valuation clears a given level one day after launch, from $25 million up to $1.5 billion. This is the lowest bar of the set, and the crowd treats clearing it as close to a formality.
The history is short and steep: four days of tracking running from 78% to 96%, starting at 78%. Even the easiest threshold was genuinely uncertain at first and firmed up quickly.
A low bar in a threshold series is not a throwaway. It establishes the baseline everyone agrees on, which makes the disagreement at higher levels legible. Without it you would know the crowd doubts a $1B outcome; with it you also know the crowd is confident about a floor, and the distance between the two is the real forecast.
What is your call?
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