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PolyGround

Crypto

LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?

96%chance of yes
YES 96%NO 4%
Status
Open
Resolves by
December 31, 2026
Since first tracked
+18 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Ninety-six percent — the floor of the LAPTOP valuation series, and priced accordingly.

Seven questions on this board ask whether LAPTOP's fully diluted valuation clears a given level one day after launch, from $25 million up to $1.5 billion. This is the lowest bar of the set, and the crowd treats clearing it as close to a formality.

The history is short and steep: four days of tracking running from 78% to 96%, starting at 78%. Even the easiest threshold was genuinely uncertain at first and firmed up quickly.

A low bar in a threshold series is not a throwaway. It establishes the baseline everyone agrees on, which makes the disagreement at higher levels legible. Without it you would know the crowd doubts a $1B outcome; with it you also know the crowd is confident about a floor, and the distance between the two is the real forecast.

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