LAPTOP FDV above $2B one day after launch?

What this question means

The ceiling of the set, priced at 3% — with a two-day history spanning 3% to 20% from an opening of 10%.

Ten LAPTOP thresholds sit on this board, and this is the most demanding of them — $2 billion, against a floor question at $10 million priced at 95%.

Note the volatility relative to the level. A question at 3% that has traded as high as 20% within two days has seen its odds move by a factor of six. That is characteristic of the extreme end of any threshold series: the tail is where small changes in the central expectation produce enormous proportional swings, because there is so little probability there to begin with.

For the same reason, tail thresholds are where confident opinions are most expensive. Being wrong at 3% costs little; being wrong about *how* wrong 3% is costs more than it looks.