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PolyGround

Crypto

LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?

91%chance of yes
YES 91%NO 10%
Status
Open
Resolves by
December 31, 2026
Since first tracked
+37 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Ninety-one percent, having climbed from 54% at the open through a 54% to 92% range in four days.

Ten questions on this board ask whether LAPTOP's fully diluted valuation clears a given level one day after launch, from $10 million to $2 billion. Read as a set they run from near-certainty at the bottom to near-zero at the top.

One thing worth noticing: the series is not perfectly ordered. A couple of the middle thresholds sit above or below where a strict ladder would place them. That is normal and not a fault — each question is priced by a partly different group, at partly different moments, and a market that has not yet been arbitraged into consistency will show small inversions.

It is a useful habit to check. When a threshold series is out of order, the mispricing is usually in whichever question has attracted the least attention.

What is your call?

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