Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch?

What this question means

Seven percent, easing down from 10% a month ago through a narrow 6% to 11% band.

The question asks whether Makina's fully diluted valuation clears $200 million one day after launch. Its companion asks the same at $300 million and sits at 6% — a single point lower.

That one-point gap is the interesting detail. Normally a meaningfully higher bar carries meaningfully lower odds, and the spread between thresholds tells you how much room the crowd expects above the line. Here the two are almost identical, which says something specific: the crowd is not really pricing the difference between $200M and $300M. It is pricing whether the launch lands in that region at all. Both bars sit on the far side of the same doubt.

Compare with the LAPTOP series elsewhere on this board, where thresholds run 96%, 92%, 80% and 24%. That is what a genuine distribution looks like. This is closer to a single verdict expressed twice.