Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

What this question means

One percent, with the deadline three weeks out. The crowd sees an Arc token launch by 30 September as close to ruled out.

The forecast has been low throughout: 2% a month ago, 1% a week ago, ranging between 1% and 5% since tracking began at 2%. There has never been a moment where this looked plausible.

Token launch questions have a clean structure that makes them easier to forecast than most. A launch is a discrete, public, dated event — it either happens or it does not, and there is rarely ambiguity about which. That removes the definitional argument that clouds many questions on this board, leaving only the estimate itself.

At 1% with three weeks remaining, most of what is left is the possibility of a genuine surprise rather than a gradual path to Yes. Launches can be announced with very little notice, which is precisely why the number is not zero.