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PolyGround

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?

5%chance of yes
YES 5%NO 95%
Status
Open
Resolves by
October 1, 2026
Since first tracked
-45 pts

How the forecast has moved

What this question means

Opened at 50% and now reads 5%, with a low of 2% along the way — a tenfold reduction in seventeen days.

The most demanding rung of the crude oil ladder, and the one that reveals what has actually happened to the crowd's view. The $95 threshold has climbed to 92% and $100 to 72%, while this and the $115 question have collapsed.

Rungs moving in opposite directions means the distribution narrowed. A market that opens with everything near 50% is admitting it has no idea; as evidence arrives, the low bars firm up toward certainty and the high bars drain toward zero. Both movements are the same process seen from opposite ends.

The practical lesson is to read a ladder's *shape change*, not its levels. A set that was flat and is now steep has learned something, whichever direction individual rungs moved.

What is your call?

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