August Inflation US - Annual

What this question means

Priced to a single decimal place: US annual inflation for August at 3.4% with 49%, 3.3% with 31%, 3.5% with 16%, and 3.2% with 6%.

Three adjacent tenths of a percentage point carry 96% of the probability. That is about as precise as a forecast on an unpublished economic figure can reasonably get, and it reflects how much information is available before release — component indices, related data, and published analyst estimates all narrow the range in advance.

Compare with the Argentina monthly inflation question on this board, where the distribution is similarly tight. Inflation prints are among the most forecastable numbers in economics, not because the economy is predictable but because the measurement is methodical and partially visible ahead of time.

What makes these questions interesting is the boundary problem. A figure of 3.35% rounds one way and 3.45% the other, and the difference between them is immaterial economically while being decisive here.