Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

What this question means

This one asks for a sequence, not a single outcome — what the Federal Reserve does across three consecutive meetings from June to September.

"Other" leads at 54%, with Pause-Pause-Pause at 47%. The specific alternative paths are all marginal: Pause-Pause-Cut at 1%, and the remaining cut combinations at zero.

Sequence questions are harder than they look. Each meeting has several possible outcomes, so the number of paths multiplies quickly, and any particular sequence becomes unlikely simply by being one of many. That is why a catch-all "Other" can end up leading a field — it absorbs every path the listed options do not name.

What the numbers actually say is that the crowd sees holding steady across all three as the most likely single path by a wide margin, but considers it roughly even odds that reality takes some other route entirely. Read against the other Fed question here, which prices a September increase near a coin flip, the two are consistent.