Fed Decision in September?

What this question means

Two outcomes, essentially. The Federal Reserve's September meeting is priced as close to a coin flip between a 25 basis point increase at 54% and no change at all at 46%, with everything else rounding to nothing.

That shape is worth reading carefully. A market this evenly split is not confused; it is saying the decision genuinely could go either way, and that whatever the committee is weighing has not resolved cleanly in either direction. Compare it to a question where one option sits at 90%, which is really asking whether anything unexpected happens.

The tail options carry information too. A 50+ basis point increase at 1%, and cuts at zero, mean nobody is seriously pricing a surprise in either magnitude or direction. The debate is narrow: move a quarter point, or wait.

Decisions like this resolve on a specific day at a specific hour, which makes them unusually clean — there is no ambiguity about what happened, only about what will.

Settles 16 September.