Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

What this question means

Seven percent, down from 16% a month ago, inside a 6% to 16% band.

The pairing on this board is the useful part. A cut by the October meeting sits at 4%; by December, 7%. Two extra months buy three percentage points — a strikingly small increment.

Compare that with the ceasefire questions here, where extending a deadline by two months more than doubles the odds. The difference tells you something real: for a ceasefire, the constraint is time. For a rate cut, the constraint is the committee's stance, and additional meetings barely help if the direction of policy is not in question.

Both readings come from the same technique — comparing the same question at two deadlines — but they yield opposite conclusions. A small gap means timeline is not the obstacle; a large gap means it is. That is worth checking on any dated pair.