Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

What this question means

Climbing steadily: 50% a month ago, 56% a week ago, 67% now, across a 39% to 67% range.

This fits the rate picture on the board exactly. A hike at some point in 2026 sits at 71%, cuts across the year at 7%, and zero cuts at 93%. The crowd has converged on tightening, and every question that touches policy direction reflects it.

What this one adds is timing. If a hike during 2026 is 71% and a hike by October is 67%, then almost all of the expected tightening is priced to arrive in the earlier part of the window. The four-point gap between the two is the crowd's estimate of the chance it comes later instead.

That decomposition is only visible with both questions in hand. One gives you direction; the pair gives you direction and schedule.