Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

What this question means

The nearest rung of the Federal Reserve ladder, and the closest to a coin flip. A hike by the September meeting is at 54%, up from 42% a month ago through a 23% to 59% range.

Three dated versions sit on this board: September at 54%, October at 67%, and any time in 2026 at 71%. Arranged in order they describe not just whether tightening comes but when.

The gaps do the talking. Thirteen points separate September from October — a meaningful chance the move lands at the later meeting. Only four points separate October from the rest of the year, meaning the crowd sees almost no scenario where a hike arrives after October but still inside 2026.

That is a specific, falsifiable view about the schedule, and it is invisible in any single one of the three questions.