Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

What this question means

Three percent, and almost perfectly flat — 4% a month ago, 3% a week ago, a recorded range of just 3% to 4%. The crowd's view on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 has barely twitched.

Low-probability, high-consequence questions tend to look like this. They sit at a small number reflecting a background rate rather than any specific expectation, and they stay there until something concrete happens. The stability is the signal: nobody is seeing anything that would justify moving.

It is worth being precise about what 3% represents. It is not a prediction that nothing will happen. It is the crowd's estimate that roughly one year in thirty looks like this one and produces the outcome. Small probabilities on serious outcomes are among the hardest things to hold in your head correctly — the instinct is to round them to zero, which is exactly wrong.

The question runs to the end of the year, and on current form is likely to sit where it is until it does not.